Predicting STEM Outcomes

Predicting STEM Degree Outcomes Based on Eighth Grade Data and Standard Test Scores, Gilliam M Nicholls, Harvey Wolfe, Mary Besterfield-Sacre, Larry J. Shuman. Journal of Engineering Education ,july 2010 Vol 99 No. 3

This paper looks at the progress of a group of students from eight grade to graduation with STEM degrees over a 12 year period. It starts with 11,320 students of which 740 become STEM graduates. The authors test for 68 variables which cover different measures of performance and motivation, some require an understanding of the US education system. most of the paper is dedicated to outlining and defending the statistical analysis.

The results show significant predictors to be:

Overall maths proficiency
Science quartile
Students ability group for mathematics
Maths grades from grade 6 through to grade 8
ACT(Mathematics)
Scholastic aptitute tests (mathematics)

How far in school parents expect child to go
Father's highest level of education - college or not
How far in school student thinks he/she will get
Race of student - Asian
Race of student African-American

This seems to simply boil down to ability and motivation. The literature review identifies another, possible more interesting study that looks at students expectations of what engineering at University is and how the realism of the expectations effects there motivation to stick with the course. Besterfield-Sacre, Mary, Cynthia J. Atman and Larry J. Schuman. 1997 Characteristics of Freshman engineering students: Models for determining student attrition in engineering, Journal of Engineering Education 86 (2): 139-49